Market history
Every sharp fall in US stocks since 1928
How deep each one went, how long it lasted, and how long it took to get back — computed from 98 years of annual returns, in nominal and real terms. No advice, no prompt to act.
- Falls of 10% or more
- 7
- Deepest
- −64.8%
- Typical time back to level
- 5 years
Calendar-year, 1928–2025
1928 to 1932
Median, peak to recovery
These depths are floors, not measurements
In nominal terms
What a statement showed. This is the version people remember, and the one that understates what was lost.
| Peak | Trough | Fall | Years down | Back to level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1928 | 1932 | −64.8% | 4 | 1936 · 8 years |
| 1936 | 1941 | −35.6% | 5 | 1944 · 8 years |
| 1956 | 1957 | −10.5% | 1 | 1958 · 2 years |
| 1972 | 1974 | −36.5% | 2 | 1976 · 4 years |
| 1999 | 2002 | −37.4% | 3 | 2006 · 7 years |
| 2007 | 2008 | −36.5% | 1 | 2012 · 5 years |
| 2021 | 2022 | −18.0% | 1 | 2023 · 2 years |
In purchasing power
The same series deflated by CPI. Two things change: the 1970s stop looking like a four-year round trip, and the 2000s become a single fourteen-year hole rather than two separate crashes.
| Peak | Trough | Fall | Years down | Back to level |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1928 | 1931 | −54.8% | 3 | 1936 · 8 years |
| 1936 | 1941 | −41.8% | 5 | 1945 · 9 years |
| 1945 | 1947 | −25.1% | 2 | 1950 · 5 years |
| 1956 | 1957 | −13.0% | 1 | 1958 · 2 years |
| 1961 | 1962 | −10.0% | 1 | 1963 · 2 years |
| 1965 | 1966 | −13.0% | 1 | 1967 · 2 years |
| 1968 | 1970 | −15.2% | 2 | 1972 · 4 years |
| 1972 | 1974 | −48.0% | 2 | 1984 · 12 years |
| 1999 | 2008 | −42.3% | 9 | 2013 · 14 years |
| 2021 | 2022 | −23.0% | 1 | 2024 · 3 years |
What the evidence says about falls like these
Read these before acting on anything above. None of them tells you what to do; all of them describe what tends to happen to people who decide during one.
- The order of returns decides retirements that averages cannot explain
Two retirees experiencing identical average returns can face opposite outcomes depending on when the bad years arrive.
- Market timing requires being right twice, and the good days cluster in the bad times
Being out of the market for a small number of the strongest periods removes a large share of long-run returns, and those periods occur disproportionately during drawdowns.
- Investors underperform the funds they own
The return the average investor earns is measurably lower than the return of the funds they hold, because of when they buy and sell.
- Losses hurt about twice as much as equivalent gains feel good
People weight losses substantially more heavily than equal-sized gains, which systematically distorts investment decisions.
This page is education, not advice, and nothing on it is a signal to buy or sell. If you want to see what a fall of this size does to a specific plan rather than to an index, the sequence risk explorer and the decision simulator both run on this same series.